Prop Firm Simulator — What Are Your Real Chances of Passing?

Run 500 simulated prop firm evaluations with your strategy stats and see a projected pass rate, average days to pass, a failure-reason breakdown, and a median equity curve with percentile bands.

How to interpret your simulation results

Pass Rate is the share of the 500 simulated evaluations that reached the profit target without breaching a firm limit — the closest approximation to a "real" pass probability for the stats you entered. A 60% pass rate means that across 10 evaluations you'd expect roughly 6 to pass, though variance means any single batch of 10 could land anywhere from 3 to 8.

Avg Days to Pass shows how long the successful runs typically took — useful for budgeting how long to plan for an attempt. If it's longer than 30 days, check whether the firm has a time limit that could push a slow run into the timeout category.

Failure Reason Breakdown shows what's actually killing the failing runs. Mostly daily-limit breaches means max daily loss exposure is too high — tighten the kill switch. Mostly trailing-drawdown breaches means too many losing days early, before any cushion builds. Mostly timeouts means expected daily P&L is too low to reach the target inside 90 trading days.

Equity Curve shows the median path (50th percentile), the 10th percentile, and the 90th percentile across all 500 runs. A wide band between the 10th and 90th shows high variance; a narrow band shows more consistent outcomes.

This simulation draws each trade as an independent event using the probability and dollar values entered. Real trading has correlated market regimes, execution variance, and spread costs this model doesn't capture — treat results as statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Improve your simulated pass rate — from $19/mo

A pass rate below 50% is usually a stop-sizing, signal-frequency, or missing-risk-management issue. Get a pre-built script with the right architecture already in place.

Frequently asked questions

How does the Monte Carlo simulation work?
It runs 500 independent evaluation scenarios. Each one draws random win/loss outcomes from your win rate, scaled by your average win or loss, accumulates daily P&L, and checks for a daily loss breach or a max drawdown breach at every step — continuing until the profit target is hit (pass) or a rule is broken (fail). The pass rate is the share of the 500 runs that passed.
How many simulations should I run?
The tool always runs a fixed 500. At that count, the standard error on the pass rate is roughly ±2.2% — enough precision for a practical decision without needing more runs.
What does the equity curve show?
Three lines: the median path across all 500 runs, the 90th percentile (best 10% of outcomes), and the 10th percentile (worst 10%). The shaded band between the 10th and 90th shows how much variance the strategy produces — wider means less consistent.
My pass rate is under 30% — is my strategy broken?
Not necessarily. A low pass rate with a positive expected value usually means high variance relative to the evaluation's risk limits. Reducing position size narrows the daily loss range and often improves pass rate substantially with the same win rate and expected value — try the simulation again with a smaller average win and loss to see the effect.
How is this different from the Strategy Readiness Checker?
The Strategy Readiness Checker gives a fast, deterministic verdict from expected-value math. This simulator runs 500 random scenarios and shows the actual probability distribution of outcomes, including how often an unlucky sequence causes a breach even with positive expected value. Use the checker for a quick read and the simulator for a deeper probability picture.

Related tools & pages